Statistical Skier

As we would expect, a late in the Tour mass start race with a reduced field results in some unusual FIS points.  I’ve adjusted them, as before, using Equivalent Percent Back but ultimately races like todays are simply a different animal so we should be cautious about making comparisons.  Still, things shake out more as […]

I’ve opted not to adjust the points on these, despite their being a a bit abnormal.  I think the performance comparisons are clear enough without making any alterations.  But, as you can see, there was definitely some concerted skiing in groups today.

If you’ve ever wondered why I haven’t attempted more statistical machinations to predict race results, today’s races are an example of why I haven’t.  Actually, I’ve spent a fair bit of time trying to build some models that will predict performance, but what I’ve learned is that skiers are too variable for reasonably simple models […]