If you’ve ever wondered why I haven’t attempted more statistical machinations to predict race results, today’s races are an example of why I haven’t. Â Actually, I’ve spent a fair bit of time trying to build some models that will predict performance, but what I’ve learned is that skiers are too variable for reasonably simple models […]
Also tagged mass start, pursuit, race snapshot, tour de ski, World CupLast week I ranted a bit about the inadequacies of F-factors[1. The scaling factor FIS uses to adjust FIS points depending on whether the race was an interval or mass start.]. Â We looked at the results from interval vs. mass start races and determined that they do indeed produce different distributions of percent back’s (PB’s). […]
Also tagged Athlete Ranking, Distance, fis points, mass startPreviously, I described some problems with using percent back (PB) as a basis for comparing race performances. Â Namely, mass start and interval start races produce very different types of PB’s. Â In this post we’ll briefly consider whether this problem is actually worth worrying about and then I’ll finish with a simple solution.
Also tagged Analysis, Distance, fis points, interval, mass, technicalThis topic is going to be somewhat more technical than usual. Â It involves some inside baseball, to mix sports metaphors, so if the nitty gritty details of FIS point calculations don’t strike you as an exciting page turner, you’ve been warned! Â However, if you stick with me, you’ll learn how brutally stupid FIS’s F-factor adjustments […]
Also tagged Analysis, Distance, f factor, fis points, interval start, mass start, technical