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WC Final Classic Sprint Recap

There were loads of problems with the heat times for this race, so I only have partial data. The men’s times were totally messed up and unusable, so I’ll only have graphs for the women. Here are the women’s finalists:

I actually made up a time for Visnar’s final round heat, since the live timing data had dropped it entirely. I actually don’t know how far back she was in the final, but I wanted to have a line for her and that was the quickest way to make it happen. I do feel a little dirty.

Interestingly, it appeared that a lot of folks skied slower in the quarterfinals than in qualification, which isn’t normally the case for the women. However, the overall trend fit the pattern with the top women skiing generally faster as the day went on.

And there wasn’t much of a difference in the semifinals in this one:

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WBC North American Assessment

So how did the North Americans do at World Biathlon Championships this year? There definitely some strong results, but here’s some context:

These are the Canadian and American biathlon performances at WBCs and OWGs measured by standardized percent behind the median skier. The blue line tracks the median over time. The Canadian men had some very impressive performances on their home soil last year at the Olympics, but that was fairly unusual and things mostly returned to normal this year.

The US men have sort of been up and down, at least judging by their median performance. However, we should note that they had 4 results better than 1 standard deviation away from the mean this year, the most they’ve ever had in a single championship.

As for shooting, it occurred to me that since the conditions were so windy for some of these races that it might be more instructive to look at a relative measure of shooting: Continue reading ›

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Race Snapshot: WCF Classic Sprint

A solid race from Andrew Newell, and a decent one for Kikkan Randall given that it’s a classic race. And that’s it for the sprint races for the year…

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Lahti Pursuit Recap: North Americans

A common refrain by now, but it was a mixed weekend for the North Americans. In an unusual twist, the distance race may have held better results than the sprint. Here are the men from the pursuit: Babikov had a pretty strong race, but everyone else had days that were mediocre or just not great. There are still a few races left, but we’re getting close to Kris Freeman having one of the worst seasons he’s had in several years, despite a few good races early on. On the other hand, we had the women, led by Kikkan Randall: Continue reading ›

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Lahti Pursuit Recap

There was a distance race this past weekend as well, of course, and in a slightly unusual format. I’m not sure why FIS includes these 10/20km pursuits; I can’t think of what the rationale is at all. In any case, here’s a look at the top men’s performances which included some slightly different names (click through for full version):

I noted when I posted the snapshot graph for this race that the FIS points may be particularly misleading. Obviously, the men’s field stayed very tightly packed right up to the finish, as Dario Cologna won the race with an effort only 0.96 standard deviations further away from the median skier than usual. You might think that this calls for further adjustments between mass and interval start races, but I’m not so sure.

First, this race was unusually tightly packed even for mass start races, so that is being accurately reflected in the graph here. Second, I’m inclined to think that mass start races actually do involve somewhat lower effort levels than an interval start race of the same distance. I’m not saying that mass start races are easy. But imagine you have two people (A and B) race against each other in several mass start and interval start races and A beats B by a consistently smaller percent back in the mass start races than the interval start races. I think that pretty strongly suggests that either B is somehow skiing faster in the mass start races or A is skiing slower. So it seems much more likely to me that the top skiers really are skiing somewhat slower in mass start races than they do in interval start races. Actually testing this about skier speeds is pretty tough, given the different courses, snow conditions and then different techniques as well. But I’d be willing to bet it’s true, and it’d be interesting to gather physiological data on actual athletes (lactate, etc.) in interval and mass start races of the same length and see if there’s a difference.

In any case, a win is a win, so good for Cologna who had a terrible World Championships. A good day as well for France, and this race with unusually “bad” standardized percent back from the median was still quite good for Manificat and Vittoz this season. I mentioned previously that I had a hunch that the French men may tend to ski slightly faster late in the season, but that’s a topic for another post.

The women’s race played out rather differently: Continue reading ›

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Lahti Sprint Recap

As always, the sprint heat times are thanks to Jan at WorldOfXC.com. I was travelling yesterday, so not only did I not watch these races, I haven’t even really read about them yet either. So this will be an interesting guessing game for me, to see how much I can infer from just the the heat times. First up the men:

That’s a different trend than we typically see for the men, with the heat times becoming gradually faster as the day went on. Emil Jönsson seemed to be skiing fast all day long. Something unusual must have happened to Kriukov and Pettersen Modin (I’ll try to fix the graph later) in the final. Looks like there were 2-3 crashes in the quarters and then some more again in the semis. Seems weird for a classic sprint.

Not much of a difference in the two semifinals: Continue reading ›

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Race Snapshot: Lahti Classic Sprint

As you can see, I’m running a bit behind today. I should be back to my regular schedule starting tomorrow with some recaps of the weekend’s racing in Lahti, and maybe some general recaps of the biathlon World Champs later in the week.

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